By Paul Voosen
August 26, 2009
http://www.eenews.net/Greenwire/2009/08/26/3/
Much of the fate of the U.N. climate treaty talks now rests in the U.S. Senate, according to a leading E.U. official, who says China would "lose its last reason" not to support an international pact if the United States passes a cap-and-trade bill.
"I know for the American Senate it's absolutely crucial to know that China will sign the treaty," said Sweden's environment minister, Andreas Carlgren, whose country currently holds the European Union's rotating presidency. "I understand that. We fully support that. We have the same expectations."
"The difference is that we [Europeans] have done so many things already, and the Senate is still deciding on cap and trade," Carlgren said yesterday in an interview at the Swedish embassy. "If the Senate would pass it, there would be no reason for China not to sign up."
Carlgren led a delegation of E.U. officials -- known as the "troika" -- to Washington over the past several days to meet with Todd Stern, the lead U.S. envoy on climate change, and Michael Froman, deputy national security adviser for international economic affairs. The bilateral talks were meant to work past the malaise that has gripped recent U.N. negotiations.
"We've seen that the negotiations are too slow, and too little will be achieved if we continue with this slow pace," Carlgren said.
Carlgren was recently in China, and said "it seems the Chinese are very serious" about climate change and, while "it is not very easy to turn a tanker around, the first step is that the captain has to understand that he has to make a move." China understands that, he said, and the efficiency goals it has already set in its five-year plan will reduce emissions.
E.U. and U.S. officials want a firmer commitment, signed into international treaty, that will expand and possibly raise China's efficiency and renewable commitments until 2020. They are unlikely to ask for hard caps, officials have indicated.
In the ongoing climate treaty talks, the European Union expects more from the United States than its current proposals on midterm emissions targets and adaptation funds for developing nations, Carlgren said.
"We expect much from the United States, certainly more than we saw in President Obama's first bid for the midterm perspective," Carlgren said. Establishing a "sufficiently ambitious" target remains a key issue between Europe and the United States, he added.
European negotiators have insisted that comparable steps to reduce climate change be taken on both sides of the Atlantic. (E.U. states are set to trim emissions 20 percent from 1990 levels by 2020.) However, given that the U.S. 2020 target is unlikely to exceed the limits proposed in the House's climate bill -- which, under rosy projections, would drop emissions by no more than 13 percent below 1990 levels -- the bloc is open to broadening its view on what is considered comparable, Carlgren said.
Among other areas, "efforts on financing could also be taken into account," he said. Also, "if America could really go for a steeper pathway after 2020, that could also be taken into account."
The issue of how much funding will be available from wealthy countries for developing nations for climate adaptation also remains a point of friction. Reports out of the recent U.N. talks in Bonn, Germany, saw little more than $10 billion in annual payments on the table, while the African Union has considered asking for $70 billion in payments.
Europe would like to see this figure settle at somewhere between €25 billion and €50 billion, Carlgren said.
"Together, we have to show developing countries that we are prepared to pay support or create economic possibilities for strong action on adaptation or to avoid deforestation," he said.
Carlgren was joined on the trip by representatives from the European Commission, the European Union's executive arm, and Spain, which will hold the presidency beginning next year.
The Swedish minister has been flummoxed by some of the debate he has heard over the climate bill as it is set to be discussed next month in the Senate.
"There are some crazy calculations going around here in America" and largely distributed by lobbyists, he said. "But we can show that there is no alternative [to cap and trade] that would lower emissions at a lower cost."
He is bemused, also, by the image Americans have of his homeland, which is in fact reliant on heavy industry like steel, iron and paper pulp.
"Americans sometimes tend to underestimate how dependent the Swedish economy is on export and industry," he said. "That's our great dependence."
Sweden imposed a price on carbon in the 1990s, but it also draws the vast majority of its electricity from carbon-free hydroelectric and nuclear power.
